Winter Simulation Conference, 2025
Argonne National Laboratory
2025-12-08
\[ \mathrm{MP}_t^{(j)} = P_t^{(j)} - H_t^{(j)} - D_t^{(j)}, \qquad j \in \mathcal{J}. \]
\(M\): mixing matrix \[ M = (m_{ij}), \qquad \sum_{j \in \mathcal{J}} m_{ij} = 1 \ \forall i, \]
\[ \mathrm{MP}_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)} = \sum_{i \in \mathcal{J}} m_{ij}\,\mathrm{MP}_t^{(i)}, \quad S_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)} = \sum_{i \in \mathcal{J}} m_{ij}\,S_t^{(i)}, \quad I_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)} = \sum_{i \in \mathcal{J}} m_{ij}\,I_t^{(i)}. \]
\[ \lambda_{s,t}^{(j)} = \beta_s \frac{I_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)}}{\mathrm{MP}_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)}}, \qquad \lambda_{v,t}^{(j)} = \beta_v \frac{I_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)}}{\mathrm{MP}_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)}}. \]
\[ p_{\mathrm{SE}}^{(j)} = 1 - \exp\!\big(-\lambda_{s,t}^{(j)} \,\Delta t\big), \\ \Delta SE_t^{(j)} = p_{\mathrm{SE}}^{(j)}\,S_t^{(j)}. \]
Population initialization
Vaccination
Mixing matrices
Statistically representative synthetic population of Chicago
(2.7M people, 1.4M places, 13k activity schedules)
Demographically accurate households from ACS + PUMS at the CBG level
Workplaces generated from County Business Patterns + LEHD OD data
(individuals assigned to realistic work locations)
Schools assigned to all school-aged children
(some adults assigned schools as workplaces)
Additional mixing locations (restaurants, gyms, etc.) from SafeGraph
Macal et al. (2018)
Agent mobility from real schedules
Endogenous contact network emerges from hour-by-hour co-location of agents
Aggregate
Macal et al. (2018)
run_id: age-stratified
population_data:
mapping: demographic_mapping.csv
initialization: population_init.csv
vaccination: vaccination.csv
mixing_matrix:
weekday_day: m_wd_d.csv
weekday_night: m_wd_n.csv
weekend_day: m_we_d.csv
weekend_night: m_we_n.csv
disease_params:
ts: 0.5
tv: 0.3
ve : 0.5
dv: 158
dp: 1
de: 3
da: 5
ds: 6
dh: 4
dr: 187
pea: 0.333
psr: 0.95
phr: 0.97
sub_disease_params:
age:
0-17:
ts: 0.5
tv: 0.1
pea: 0.1
psr: 0.99
18-64:
ts: 0.5
tv: 4
pea: 0.1
psr: 0.99
65+:
ts: 0.5
tv: 7
pea: 0.3
psr: 0.97
simulation_config:
start_date: 10/01/2023 # m/d/Y
length: 200